Sunday, September 03, 2006

The Last Days On Earth Part II
This is a long time overdue, but here it is anyways :). On the ABC program last days on earth aired this Wednsday, it outlined seven most likely 'doomsday' in order of probability with 7 being the most improbable.

7. Gamma Ray Burst - Black Hole
6. Artificial Intelligence & Smart Machines
5. Supervolcanoe
4. Asteriod Strike
3. Nuclear Warfare
2. Plague/Pandemic
1. Global Warming

The first in the list Gamma Ray Burst & Black Hole are probably the most fascinating. Both results from a collapsing star. If a Gamma Ray Burst occurs within 500 light years of earth, it will penetrate our atomsphere and extinct most multicellular life on earth. A Gamma Ray Burst would cause more damage than a supernova at the same distance. A black hole on the other hand would destroy the entire planet since not even light could escape its gavity. At first, it was thought black holes are static in space, however recent findings suggest that blacks holes actually travel through space and there is evidence suggest that there is a black hole near our solar system but traveling away from us. If a black hole is found traveling in our solar system, it would gives us around one hundred years until the end.

The next threat on the list is AI, which I think is quite ridiculous compare to a gamma ray burst. Even Stephen Hawkings said ultra intelligent machines may rise within our lifetime. It certainly doesn't look like its going to happen within my lifetime the way things are going. The field of Artificial Intelligence has become more and more lacklaster after its start in the 60s, the field is split and there are suggestions that half of the people are barking up the wrong tree. Chess has long been held as a sign of intelligence however since IBM Deep Blue has beaten International Grandmaster Garry Gasparov it looks like chess is just another game and Deep Blue is just another super fast computer that runs a incrediblely large program...

Mt. Velsuvious devoured Pompeii in 79A.D. however that is nothing compared to a super volcanoe between the earth plate running many square miles. One of the most prominent super volcanoe is Yellow Stone National Park. If it blows, debris from the eruption would cover the entire world in a few days and not settle for many years to come. Supervolcanoe eruption has a cycle of millions of years and we are overdue...

Another threat to earth is an asteriod strike. Thousands of asteriods hits the earth everyday but most are harmlessly burn up in the stratosphere, but a more sizable chunk could cause much more damage like the extinction of dinosaurs. In 2000, an asteriod was project to travel between earth and our 'higher' satelites. And in 2003, British Astronomers have found Asteroid "2003 QQ47" which may collide with earth. The chances of collision is very small and these asteriods are not big enough to cause global extinction.

The top three threats on the list are all 'man' made. Nuclear & Biological Warfare are science going bad in the mentally unbalanced. In addition to some epidemics like SARS and Avian Flu, it is very easy for one of the thousands of chemistry experts to alter a deadly disease such as small pox for a 100% fatality.

Finally, the number one threat to our existence is surprisingly, Globabl Warming, which is already will under way. If things continues as it is, many major cities will be submerged and drastic temperature changes occuring within the century.

posted by Stavanger at 3:51 PM

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